The most concerning problems facing the post-pandemic air transport industry aren’t profitability, demand for air travel, the return of business travel, oil prices, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) availability, or even the cost and technological challenges of decarbonization.
Financial stability is returning, albeit at a trickle and sooner in some regions than others, as our 2023 forecast report shows (pg. 14). All around the world, demand for air travel surges back wherever borders reopen and quarantines and other COVID-related restrictions are lifted, proving it’s the government rules that stifle the desire to fly, not a fear of the virus. And while much of the early crowds consist of people traveling for VFR and vacation purposes, people are traveling for business too. Conferences and events roared back in 2022 and were well attended. Zoom and Teams are business add-on tools, not in-person meeting replacements. Oil prices will stabilize, then fall, then rise again. They always do. And meeting the 2050 carbon net-zero target will be a daunting, massively expensive challenge, but not an insurmountable one. The industry is hugely committed, invested, and actively engaged in multiple efforts to get there, as our sustainability special report illustrates (pg. 33).
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The real problem facing the global air transport industry as it emerges from the worst effects of the pandemic is that it looks far too much like the pre-pandemic industry.
Overcrowded airports; overwhelmed baggage handling systems; congestion in the airways and on the ground; increased taxes and fees by airports, governments and air navigation system providers (ANSPs); massive delays and cancellations triggered by relatively small weather events; operational meltdowns stemming from antiquated airline and air traffic management IT systems; long security queues as governments stick to almost 17-year-old shoes-off, computer-out, tiny-liquid-container rules.
All these problems were around in 2019 and before. All are coming back with the return of near-normal air capacity and demand. And all are far more easily addressed than the decarbonization challenge. Long overdue air traffic management modernization remains sorely lacking or delayed. Some European governments, in particular, have the almost immoral audacity to mandate SAF use, regardless of availability, and restrict short-haul flights while failing to fully implement the Single European Sky initiative that would save huge amounts of wasted fuel and reduce emissions by 10%. Current scanning technology negates the need for most of the laborious carry-on baggage rules that were supposed to be temporary when they were introduced in 2006. Taxes and fees are in the control of governments, ANSPs and airports, and they shouldn’t be hiked without real, measurable and immediate returns to airlines and the traveling public.
There’s been a lot of talk these past three years about when the industry will get back to 2019 levels. That’s too low a bar. To really succeed, the post-pandemic air transport industry needs to look a whole lot better than it did in 2019.
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