The impact upon tourism and the drop in air traffic to Egypt, Turkey, and Tunisia has never been far from the news over the past six months. As ISIS activity grows across North Africa, it has led to a devastating impact upon North Africa’s tourism - the United Nations World Tourism Organisation (UNWTO) shows that visits to North Africa fell by 8% in 2015. The decline has occurred as the security threat level has grown in the region, particularly in Egypt and Tunisia where high profile terror attacks have brought safety to the forefront of everyone’s minds.
Investigations continue into the May 19, 2016 crash of an EgyptAir Airbus A320 while operating flight ‘MS804’ from Paris and Cairo. This followed just six weeks after the hijacking of another of the airline’s A320 en route between Alexandria and Cairo had once again brought the safety of air transportation in Egypt back into the spotlight. An Egyptian citizen, named by authorities as Seif El Din Mustafa, took control of flight ‘MS181’ on March 29, 2016 while on its domestic flight to the nation’s capital. He demanded the aircraft be re-routed to Larnaca in Cyprus, where he later freed the passengers and crew and was arrested.
Although the this incident proved not be terrorism related, questions have been raised as to how the hijacker was able to embark on the plane wearing what appeared to be a suicide vest with explosives. It is in fact the eighth reported hijacking incident involving an EgyptAir aircraft, reports Aviation Safety Network.
It was later reported that the suicide vest was a fake, but that has not dampened the obvious security concerns. An official at the Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs said: “He’s not a terrorist, he’s an idiot. Terrorists are crazy but they aren't stupid. This guy is."
Egyptian authorities had promised to tighten airport security in the wake of the downing of the Metrojet Airbus A321 in October last year, where all 224 passengers died. Investigations later found that explosives had been smuggled onto the airliner, most likely at Sharm el-Sheikh International Airport and caused the aircraft to crash after departure from the Red Sea resort.
It is a similar issue in Tunisia where a mass shooting at the tourist resort at Port El Kantaoui, about 10 kilometres north of the city of Sousse, Tunisia in June 2015 killed 38 people. This was the second serious terrorist attack to hit Tunisia in a couple of months, following a shooting at the Bardo museum in Tunis in March 2015, which killed 22 people.
After the October 31, 2015 Metrojet crash in Egypt’s Sinai region, many nations suspended flights to and from Sharm El Sheikh International Airport. In the UK, for example, regular flights were suspended on November 4, 2015 but special security measures in place permitted emergency repatriation flights to operate through to November 17, 2015. Since then the UK’s Foreign & Commonwealth Office (FCO) has advised against all but essential travel by air to or from Sharm el Sheikh.
The UK FCO continues to advise against all travel to the Governorate of North Sinai due to the “significant increase in criminal activity and continued terrorist attacks on police and security forces that have resulted in deaths” and advises against all but essential travel to the Governorate of South Sinai, with the exception of the area within the Sharm el Sheikh perimeter barrier, excluding the airport.
The Egyptian Red Sea resorts have become a popular leisure destination for European visitors due to its year-round warm climate, but restrictions mean that major airlines such as British Airways and easyJet have suspended flights into Sharm el Sheikh, while tour operators Thomson and Thomas Cook have cancelled all flights and holidays through most of this year.
A look at schedule data shows that international capacity into Egypt has shown little change since the Metrojet crash last October with overall capacity actually up 5.7% in the November 2015 – March 2016 window in comparison to the same five month period in 2014/2015. However, there have been modest declines in capacity from the start of this year and when you look into the summer months this grows to larger rates.
Overall international capacity into Egypt rose 0.1% in the first quarter of 2016, but will decline 4.4% in the second quarter, 6.6% in the third quarter and 12.0% in the fourth quarter, according to current published schedules. This will mean overall international capacity in 2016 will be down 5.8% versus last year.
The concerns over security safety at Sharm el Sheikh and the cancellation of many flights is clear to see in the data. International departure seats from the airport were down 76.1% in the first quarter of this year versus the same period in 2015 from almost 340,000 to just over 80,000. Hurghada, where a knife attack at the Bella Vista Hotel on January 8, 2016 resulted in injuries to three foreign nationals, has also seen international seat capacity decline by almost a third in the same period.
But, these massive declines have been offset by growth elsewhere in Egypt. At the country’s main gateway of Cairo International Airport international capacity was up 10.8% in the first quarter of 2016, an additional 245,000 seats, while significant year-on-year growth was recorded at Aswan and Asiut, the latter becoming the country’s fifth largest international arrival point by capacity in the process.
There are ten Egyptian airports that will handle scheduled international flights this summer. These will be linked to foreign markets by 72 different airlines, albeit four in ten of all international flights planned in 2016 will be flown by national carrier, EgyptAir.
The situation in Tunisia mirrors that being seen in Egypt and international capacity into the country was up a modest 0.1% in the first quarter of this year, buoyed by a stronger performance in March. However, when we start to look into the summer months, capacity is notably down on last year – in fact October is the only month showing a rise in capacity versus last year, based on published schedules.
The declines are significant too. International capacity in the second quarter will be down a massive 16.4% versus last year, with the third quarter and fourth quarter performing relatively better with 7.8% and 4.1% falls. This all equates to a forecasted annual 7.8% decline in international capacity into Tunisia for 2016, falling from 4.59 million seats in 2015 to 4.23 million this year. The second quarter has been marked by double-digit international capacity declines across all months, including a 20.6% fall in May and an expected decline of 20.8% in June.
The fall has been mainly driven by the departure of Europe’s largest leisure carriers from the Tunisian market and their associated holiday packages. Looking at June schedules for 2015 and 2016 Thomas Cook Airlines, Thomson Airways, Condor and Jetairfly have all left the market resulting in the removal of 65,000 monthly seats from the previous year.
The market has also been impacted by the collapse of Syphax Airlines and Russian carrier Transaero Airlines and the suspension of flights to Tunisia by among others, Air Malta, airberlin, Germania, Jet2.com, KLM and Monarch Airlines. Others major brands such as Air France, Emirates Airlines, Royal Air Maroc, Transavia France and Turkish Airlines have also cut capacity.
The loss of this intercontinental traffic in Tunisia has been seemingly partly balanced by growth in other markets with airlines such as Afriqiyah Airways, Air Algerie, Libyan Airlines, Saudia and local carriers Nouvelair and Tunisair all boosting capacity in June 2016 versus the same month last year, some at a considerable rate.
The trend is clear and as tourists are shunning the once popular resorts of North Africa there has been a growth in demand for traditional leisure markets as people seek out perceived ‘safer’ destinations for holidays. There have been notable increases in demand for destinations across Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain, markets that were beginning to fall out of favour with a more adventurous traveller keen to seek out new opportunities.
While this has helped these markets it has not come without its problems. Lobbying groups are voicing concerns about sustainability within the Balearic Islands as they face additional capacity pressures from increasing visitor arrivals by both air and sea. The Balearics, with a permanent population of 1.1 million, had 13 million visitors last year, according to official tourism data. Palma on the island of Mallorca, is already expanding its airport capacity by around a third to 100 daily flights this season to meet the increased demand.
Egypt is working to win back tourists, important for its economy, and has promised a notable investment in improving its security. Tourism minister Hisham Zaazou said earlier this year: "Egypt has a long track record of enhancing security and seeking to ensure that our citizens and tourists visiting our country are safe and secure. These additional measures bring our tourist security to another level. However, we will not stop there. We constantly review our capabilities on a regular basis and will continue to do so.”
"The security of visitors to Egypt remains our highest priority. I believe that these new measures will further add to the security of our resorts while not being intrusive to tourists so they can get on with enjoying their holidays," he added.
There is a high level of government support for the aviation and tourism industries. International airlines are given reduced landing and waiting fees for operating at airports in ‘touristic cities’. In fact there is a 100% exemption from these fees at Luxor, Aswan, Abu Simbel and Assiut airports, for airlines using these airports as a base.
The Egyptian Ministry of Aviation also pays towards the services provided to passengers at Egyptian airports: $20 per passenger on international, regular and charter flights and $4 per passenger on domestic routes. Ministers have also intervened to exempt certain airports from loading bridge fees and fire services, and duties have been reduced on aircraft weighing more than 200 tons.
The Egyptian government is working hard to facilitate aviation growth, a measure that other nations such as Israel and Kenya have also actioned to rebound after terrorist attacks. However, it is unclear if these will bring sustainable growth while uncertainty over safety remains. But, with the value of aviation connectivity clear to see it just could provide the first step on the road to recovery.
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