Boeing: 42,730 jets - valued at $6.3trn - needed over next 20 years

Rising passenger traffic and upcoming airplane retirements will drive the need for 42,730 new jets over the next 20 years, according to a report from Boeing, a figure higher than previously forecast.

The company's annual forecast, renamed the Commercial Market Outlook (CMO), was presented today at the Farnborough International Airshow. The figure of 42,730 is 4.1 percent higher than previous estimates.

“For the first time in years, we are seeing economies growing in every region of the world,” said Randy Tinseth, vice president of commercial marketing for The Boeing Company.

“This synchronised growth is providing more stimulus for global air travel. We are seeing strong traffic trends not only in the emerging markets of China and India, but also the mature markets of Europe and North America.”

According to fleet data, there are more than 900 aircraft today that are over 25 years old. By the mid-2020s, more than 500 airplanes a year will reach 25 years of age – double the current rate – fuelling the retirement wave.

Tinseth said 44 percent of the new aircraft needed would therefore be replacements, while the rest will support future growth.

Boeing’s report forecasted that single-aisle segment will see the most growth over the 20-year period, with a demand for 31,360 new airplanes, an increase of 6.1 percent over last year.

This $3.5trn market is driven in large part by the continued growth of low-cost carriers, strong demand in emerging markets, and increasing replacement demand in markets such as China and Southeast Asia.

The wide-body segment calls for 8,070 new airplanes valued at nearly $2.5trn over the next two decades. Demand is spearheaded, in part, by a large wave of replacements beginning early in the next decade.

Additionally, Boeing projects the need for 980 new production wide-body freighters over the forecast period, up 60 over last year. In addition, operators are forecasted to buy 1,670 converted freighters.

Boeing’s forecast aircraft deliveries through 2037 by size:

In terms of the geographic split of the new forecast, the aircraft and services demand are similarly geared toward the major growth markets. The Asia-Pacific region, which includes China, will continue to lead the way, accounting for 40 percent of total deliveries and 38 percent of total services value. North America and Europe complete the top three.

Commercial market through 2037 by region: