Enhanced global air connectivity drives increased international tourism demand

International tourist arrivals grew by 4.4 per cent in 2015 to reach a total of 1,184 million in 2015, according to the latest UNWTO World Tourism Barometer. Some 50 million more tourists (overnight visitors) travelled to international destinations around the world last year as compared to 2014, according to the report.

2015 marks the sixth consecutive year of above-average growth, with international arrivals increasing by four per cent or more every year since the post-crisis year of 2010.

“International tourism reached new heights in 2015. The robust performance of the sector is contributing to economic growth and job creation in many parts of the world. It is thus critical for countries to promote policies that foster the continued growth of tourism, including travel facilitation, human resources development and sustainability” said Taleb Rifai, Secretary-General, UNWTO.

Demand was strong overall, though with mixed results across individual destinations due to unusually strong exchange rate fluctuations, the drop in oil prices and other commodities which increased disposable income in importing countries but weakened demand in exporters, as well as increased safety and security concerns.

“2015 results were influenced by exchange rates, oil prices and natural and manmade crises in many parts of the world. As the current environment highlights in a particular manner the issues of safety and security, we should recall that tourism development greatly depends upon our collective capacity to promote safe, secure and seamless travel,” said Rifai.

“In this respect, UNWTO urges governments to include tourism administrations in their national security planning, structures and procedures, not only to ensure that the sector’s exposure to threats is minimised but also to maximise the sector’s ability to support security and facilitation, as seamless and safe travel can and should go hand in hand,” he added.

The report highlights that growth in advanced economy destinations (up five per cent) exceeded that of emerging economies (up four per cent), boosted by the solid results of Europe (up five per cent). By region, Europe, the Americas and Asia and the Pacific all recorded around five per cent growth in international arrivals in 2015, while the Middle East increased by three per cent while Africa saw an estimated three per cent decrease, mostly due to weak results in North Africa, which accounts for over one third of arrivals in the region.

Results from the UNWTO Confidence Index remain largely positive for 2016, though at a slightly lower level as compared to the previous two years. Based on the current trend and this outlook, UNWTO projects international tourist arrivals to grow by four per cent worldwide in 2016.

By region, growth is expected to be stronger in Asia and the Pacific (up between four and five per cent) and the Americas (also up between four and five per cent), followed by Europe (up between 3.5 per cent to +4.5 per cent). A two to five per cent growth projection for Africa and the Middle East are positive, though with a larger degree of uncertainty and volatility.

2015 international tourism arrivals by global region

Last year Europe (up five per cent) led growth in absolute and relative terms supported by a weaker euro versus the US dollar and other main currencies. Arrivals reached 609 million, or 29 million more than in 2014. Central and Eastern Europe (up six per cent) rebounded from the previous year’s decrease in arrivals. Northern Europe (up six per cent), Southern Mediterranean Europe (up five per cent) and Western Europe (up four per cent) also recorded sound results, especially considering the many mature destinations they comprise.

Asia and the Pacific (up five per cent) recorded 13 million more international tourist arrivals last year to reach 277 million, with uneven results across destinations. Oceania was up seven per cent and South-East Asia up five per cent and led growth in the region, while South Asia and in North-East Asia both recorded an increase of four per cent.

International tourist arrivals in the Americas (up five per cent) grew nine million to reach 191 million, consolidating the strong results of 2014. The appreciation of the US dollar stimulated outbound travel from the United States, benefiting the Caribbean and Central America, both recording seven per cent growth. Results in South America and North America (both at four per cent) were close to the average.

International tourist arrivals in the Middle East grew by an estimated three per cent to a total of 54 million, consolidating the recovery initiated in 2014. Limited available data for Africa points to a three per cent decrease in international arrivals, reaching a total of 53 million. In North Africa arrivals declined by eight per cent and in Sub-Saharan Africa by one per cent, though the latter returned to positive growth in the second half of the year.

2015 international tourism arrivals by destination

Drilling down in the data to individual destination markets and it is clear that a few leading source markets have driven tourism expenditure in 2015 supported by a strong currency and economy. These includes the likes of China, the USA and the UK, which led outbound travel growth in 2015.

Among the world’s top source markets, China, with double-digit growth in expenditure every year since 2004, continues to lead global outbound travel, benefitting Asian destinations such as Japan and Thailand, as well as the United States and various European destinations.

By contrast, expenditure from the previously very dynamic source markets of the Russian Federation and Brazil declined significantly, reflecting the economic constraints in both countries and the depreciation of the rouble and the real against virtually all other currencies.

As for the traditional advanced economy source markets, expenditure from the United States (up nine per cent), the world’s second largest source market, and the United Kingdom (up six per cent) was boosted by a strong currency and rebounding economy. Spending from Germany, Italy and Australia grew at a slower rate (all at two per cent), while demand from Canada and France was rather weak.