Will Yamassoukro really open Africa’s skies or is it just the first step along a long path for change?

There are endless reports on the long-awaited Yamassoukro Decision and whether it will actually deliver its promised benefits to the African aviation sector or whether outside factors will continue to blunt the impact of an agreement that has been discussed for many years but still awaits implementation.

The agreement stipulates a substantial liberalising of traffic rights within Africa and less regulation of capacity, frequency and fares) and commits its 44 signatory countries to deregulate air services, and promote regional air markets open to transnational competition.

“Yamassoukro will not create an Open Aviation Area within Africa. Once achieved, it will still be an impressive step forwards, but one which I argue can only be a first step, and one which would need to be accompanied by easing the restrictions on visas within Africa, and significant infrastructure development”

Jeremy Robinson
Partner, Watson Farley & Williams LLP

Aviation already supports 6.9 million jobs and more than $80 billion in GDP across Africa, but research from InterVISTAS demonstrates that liberalisation will create opportunities for further significant employment growth and economic development. The additional services generated by intra- African liberalisation between just 12 key markets will provide an extra 155,000 jobs and $1.3 billion in annual GDP. The research suggests that a potential five million passengers a year are being denied the chance to travel between these markets because of unnecessary restrictions on establishing air routes.

“For me, while these points are valid, they are not the whole story,” said Jeremy Robinson, Partner, Watson Farley & Williams LLP. “Even with the restricted bilaterals generally still in place between African states, there are many available routes which are not being served, or served to the available limits.”

The relevant questions are then: why is this so, and what can be done about it? Is it a matter of having the right planes of the right size serving the right routes? Is it also about finding that win-win-win between airports, airlines and Government stakeholders to bring new or revived air services, and making time-efficient connections where direct routes are not available?

“What's more, even when it can be said that the Yamassoukro Decision is fully operational within Africa, will that be the magic pill that unlocks Africa's aviation potential?” questions Robinson.

The subject of what Africa needs will be discussed at this year’s Routes Africa forum which takes place in Tenerife, Canary Islands between June 28-30, 2016. Before then Jeremy Robinson will be sharing his views on the European market in a panel discussion on what Europe needs at the forthcoming Routes Europe forum in Kraków, Poland between April 23-26, 2016. He will also be making a Routes Talks presentation on how changing regulation may impact network development in the next 15 years.

The Yamassoukro Decision does not - in its terms - foresee as radical or extensive liberalisation as that created by the European Union's own liberalisating legislation between 1987-1992, which radically changed aviation within Europe.

“Yamassoukro will not create an Open Aviation Area within Africa. Once achieved, it will still be an impressive step forwards, but one which I argue can only be a first step, and one which would need to be accompanied by easing the restrictions on visas within Africa, and significant infrastructure development,” said Robinson.

Some say that the Yamassoukro Decision will be in full effect in 2017 and that the leadership which some countries are showing on liberalisation will encourage the rest, but many also believe there remains a lot of work to even achieving this position.

What is clear is that there is still a long way to go: while economic growth has picked up in parts of Africa in recent years, despite the limitations of aviation, economic development in Africa as a whole will likely still face headwinds until connectivity improves.

“Aviation - with or without liberalised traffic rights - will always be a challenging and ever-changing industry wherever you are; incidentally, one of the reasons it is so fascinating to its followers,” explained Robinson.

“But aviation in Africa has a bright future and there will be great opportunities to bring countries and their people closer together in the coming years, for business and tourism,” he added.