The global civil aircraft fleet should increase 3.9% over the next 10 years to 32,500 aircraft, and the value of the aftermarket supporting that fleet likely will grow at a 3.2% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to $69 billion by 2022, according to an Aviation Week forecast. While the growth percentages look small and could indicate a constrained airline capacity increase for the next few years, while keeping maintenance costs in check, a look at the underlying numbers make this a much more dynamic story.

In September 1996, Embraer announced the arrival of its regional jet family in North America when Continental Express ordered 200 ERJ 145s. Even though only 25 of the commitments were firm, the message was clear: Embraer's 50-seat market entry was going to be a major player in the world's biggest aviation market. Recently, a few ERJ 145s were involved in a very different kind of transaction that delivered an equally emphatic, but different message.

Tech logs are being tied to MRO systems for faster decisions

An American Airlines-US Airways merger offers the combined carrier clear opportunities to leverage existing assets as part of a long-term MRO strategy that mixes in-house and outsourced work. Just how much work will stay in the new American's hangars is anyone's guess, however, particularly considering the apparent clash of philosophies.

Airlines, MROs and OEMs adjust to big shift in business dynamic

New-generation turbine engines are being designed to run hotter for better fuel efficiency and lower emissions. This requires a second generation of thermal barrier coating (TBC) technologies that offer greater protection for costly engine components such as the high-pressure turbine blades and vanes. “The new generation of ceramic TBCs, which are referred to as 'Low K TBC,' will provide lower conductivity, resulting in greater insulative conductivity,” says Ravi Shankar, director of coating and process technologies for Chromalloy.

Third party work is driving Kalitta Air MRO expansion

As the average age of the global commercial fleet continues to get younger, is the corresponding aftermarket becoming more mature? In the last three years, the average aircraft age has decreased to 11.9 from 12.2 years, according to Aviation Week data. While that is not a precipitous drop, it is significant in that it corresponds to younger aircraft and engines being torn apart because their values are higher individually. (Don't miss the AW&ST package on life cycles in this issue.)