Engine overhaul expenditures will grow modestly in the short term, but prepare for a spike.

The initial move away from punishing good technicians for maintenance errors began about two decades ago as savvy leaders began to understand the downside of disciplining to “fix” errors—and the upside of instead conducting a thorough evaluation of the “why” behind those errors. Since then, leading maintenance organizations have created non-punitive cultures in which committees dig into the causes behind errors with the aim of identifying whether changes in policy, process or documentation should be made to prevent future occurrences of the same errors.

Commercial-scale, competitively priced production of drop-in biofuel replacements for petroleum-based jet fuel remains elusive, but technology work continues unabated. Two synthetic-fuel pathways are already approved for use in aircraft, in blends up to 50%: Fischer-Tropsch synthetic paraffinic kerosene (SPK) from coal, gas or biomass; and hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids (HEFA) from animal fats and vegetables oils. At least two more could be added in 2013: alcohol-to-jet (ATJ) and synthetic kerosene with aromatics (SKA).

A three-dimensional holographic radar that overcomes wind-farm interference with air traffic control radars could be commercially operational by late 2013. When an aircraft flies over a wind farm, its track can be lost amid the Doppler returns from the rotating blades of wind turbines. The problem is growing, as wind farms proliferate worldwide. Aveillant's holographic infill radar with its flat phased-array antennas provides the missing position and altitude data for aircraft.

European government bickering scuttled a mega-merger of EADS and BAE Systems, and the Pentagon continues to hold firm against further consolidation among its top contractors. But consolidation amid second- and third-tier contractors is likely to accelerate as defense spending heads down in the U.S. and Europe.

The kind of precision maintenance, repair and overhaul practiced by Vector Aerospace Helicopter Services at its Richmond, British Columbia, facility demands precise, plentiful interior illumination. It doesn't hurt to cut the light bill either.

NASA wants $800 million in fiscal 2013 for its program to outsource the transport of crews to and from space, and says if it does not get the funding first commercial flights to the International Space Station will slip to 2018. With station funding set to expire in 2020, that could be a problem.

Gears on Boeing aircraft represent the biggest opportunity for 2013.