MRO Memo: Is the Cargo Conversion Market Cooling?

On the face of it, there was nothing remarkable about this week’s contract between Aeronaves TSM and Aeronautical Engineers (AEI) for six freighter conversions of Bombardier-MHI CRJ200 aircraft.

The first of the regional aircraft is already undergoing conversion at Commercial Jet in Alabama and the remaining five should be completed by June 2024.

However, the order, along with another from the Mexican carrier for a Boeing 737-400SF, may signal a turning point in the conversion market as airlines begin to replace lessors for slot bookings and converters return to traditional production rates.

Encouraged by growing e-commerce and the booming cargo market during the pandemic years, lessors flocked to the conversions market, causing some to question whether it was over-heating.

Some conversion providers have suggested that production rates over the past three years are unsustainable given the size of the cargo market and economic headwinds.

“Given the current uncertainty in the economic environment, we do however expect the annual pace of freighter deliveries to settle a bit after 2023,” noted Robert Convey, AEI’s senior vice president of sales and marketing, in January.

In February, one of the world’s largest freighter aircraft operators and lessors, ATSG, said that it would scale back operations for Amazon and DHL, adding that Amazon would probably reduce the number of 767Fs it leased from the company.

In March, meanwhile, Canadian carrier Cargojet said that weaker consumer demand had pushed it to to defer freighter conversion of four Boeing 777 aircraft.

Cargojet’s management noted that demand was lower than expected in December and that the impact of interest rate rises on consumer behavior “is just beginning to be felt.”