New business jet and turboprop deliveries in Europe are expected to reach just under 1,900 units over the next 10 years, with large and ultra-long-range jets accounting for about a third of all deliveries into the region, according to Aviation Week Network’s 2022 Business Fleet & MRO Forecast.
The forecast predicts deliveries of about 1,300 business jets, which includes very light jets through VVIP aircraft, and more than 560 single-engine and multi-engine turboprops for Eastern and Western Europe.
Roughly a fifth of all worldwide shipments from 2022 through 2031 are projected to be delivered into Europe, the forecast says.
The Gulfstream G500 and G600 are expected to lead large jet shipments to Europe over the period, while the Pilatus PC-12 is projected to be the most widespread new business aircraft type in the region with nearly 150 deliveries during the decade.
Single-engine turboprops and small jets, meanwhile, each represent a quarter of the business aircraft to be delivered during the period with 480 single-engine turboprops and more than 465 very light and light jets.
Daher TBM and Piper PA-46 aircraft are expected to be in-demand with European customers. A projected 90 of each type are forecast to be delivered.
Meanwhile, the in-service business aviation fleet in Europe is expected to grow 2.8% per year over the next 10 years, compared to a projected world average compound annual growth rate of 0.7%. Jet activity, especially in the large jet category, will be robust, the forecast predicts.
“The in-service fleet really hasn’t grown a great deal in Western Europe, which I suppose is good because that means it’s not shrunk as well,” says Daniel Williams, head of Aviation Week Fleet & Flight Data. “In Eastern Europe, the numbers have crept up, but it’s relatively marginal (and) it’s from a lower base. The market is pretty static.”
Citing robust demand, business aircraft manufacturers say they plan to increase production rates, however, Williams does not project massive rate increases.
“There will be some slight increases, but the supply chain is struggling right now,” he says. “Right now, I think that the OEMs are trying to just make some more money out of their current production line, so they don’t want to raise rates too quickly.”
The European fleet is expected to grow from more than 4,200 aircraft in 2022 to more than 5,400 aircraft by the end of 2031.
Textron Aviation and Pilatus aircraft are projected to be the most popular new deliveries in the region, with combined deliveries worth $25 billion at retail prices.
In 2022, small jets make up the majority of business aircraft in Europe, but large jets are expected to surpass small jets by the end of 2031, the forecast projects.
By category, the single-engine turboprop segment is expected to grow the fastest in Europe with a 6.3% annual growth rate, followed by large jets at a 4.2% increase from just over 1,000 aircraft to nearly 1,600 aircraft. Meanwhile, medium jets are expected to grow at 2.4%, followed by small jets at 2.2% and VVIP aircraft at 1.0%.
Demand for maintenance, repair and overhaul services in Europe, meanwhile, is forecast to grow at a 3.2% compound annual growth rate, compared to 1.7% globally before inflation. Large jet MRO demand is expected to grow 4.2% per year in Europe, more than the expected 3.5% global rate increase.
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