Embraer Forecasts Demand For 11,000 New Airplanes Over 20 Years

Airlines will need 11,000 new aircraft in the up-to-150 seat category over the next 20 years according to Embraer’s recently published Market Outlook 2023. The report details factors influencing demand and forecasts aircraft deliveries for six world regions.

North American carriers will receive 30% of the worldwide 8,790 jet deliveries followed by 27% for Europe/CIS, and 26% for Asia Pacific/China. The regional ranking is reversed for the 2,210 turboprop deliveries with Asia Pacific/China acquiring 41%, Europe/CIS 20%, and North America 18%.

Here are some key issues in each of the world areas and their impact on demand for new up-to-150 seat aircraft.

Asia Pacific/China – 3,180 Aircraft (2,270 Jets • 910 Turboprops)

Despite its huge population, China’s domestic air service connectivity is a fraction of that of the USA which has fewer people. More aircraft up-to-150 seats would allow carriers to transition from today’s mostly point-to-point flying to more connecting flights for better service at secondary and tertiary cities. Sub 150-seat aircraft have proven to be the most efficient platforms for expanding networks to those lower-demand markets.

North America – 3,100 Aircraft (2,690 Jets • 410 Turboprops)

A short-term pilot shortage is impacting air service – airlines are retiring 50-seat jets, parking smaller aircraft, and flying larger narrowbodies on traditional regional routes. This unbalances the region’s fleet deployment and negatively impacts its connectivity and efficiency. As more pilots are hired, new up-to-150 seat jets will be in demand, especially with their lower trip and similar seat-mile costs compared to larger narrowbodies.

Europe/CIS – 2,840 Aircraft (2,390 Jets • 450 Turboprops)

Narrowbodies still dominate airline fleets. Governments are focusing on sustainability in the aviation sector as carriers introduce more SAF to their fuel supply. The higher cost of SAF in the medium term will raise ticket prices and may cause some carriers to withdraw service. The new generation of up-to-150 seat aircraft already comply with future noise and emissions standards as the region goes low carbon.

Latin America – 960 Aircraft (780 Jets • 180 Turboprops)

78% of flights across the continent are point-to-point and are operated by large narrowbodies between 20 and 25 years of age. The region will benefit from more up-to-150 aircraft that can provide greater access across airline networks through more connecting flights. This is an emerging trend – since 2020, 56% of frequencies to new markets were flown with smaller aircraft.

Middle East – 390 Aircraft (340 Jets • 50 Turboprops)

As growth in long-haul flying is declining, airlines are looking to expand intra-regional air service. In those markets, only 16% had at least one daily frequency in 2022. Moreover, 64% of all domestic/regional flights that year carried fewer than 150 passengers, suggesting that aircraft up-to-150 seats would be a good fit.

Africa – 530 Aircraft (320 Jets • 210 Turboprops)

70% of domestic and intra-regional markets have less than a single daily flight. Average load factors are low because of over capacity and a low propensity for the population to travel (measured by GDP and trips per capita.) Aircraft with fewer seats are ideal to open new nonstop markets and increase frequencies yet regulatory restrictions remain a barrier to developing the continent’s full potential.

For more details, including an overview of the growing demand for passenger-to-freighter conversions, click here to read Embraer’s Market Outlook 2023.