Air Force chief Gen. Norton Schwartz says the initial operational capability (IOC) date of his service’s version of the multinational F-35 is not likely to slip as the Pentagon prepares to unveil the restructured effort. But, that assertion is questioned in light of the chief Pentagon’s tester’s 2009 annual report on the Joint Strike Fighter program’s efforts at operational test and evaluation—“op-eval,” to insiders. The test chief notes that only 10% of the 168 test sorties planned for Fiscal 2009 took place.
Raymond Jaworowski/Forecast International/www.forecastinternational
Economic conditions appear to be improving in fits and starts, and air travel demand is reviving somewhat, but the airline industry is still in rough shape after a collapse in passenger and cargo traffic brought on by the global economic crisis . Particularly worrisome to airlines has been that premium (first- and business-class) travel began declining at a faster rate than other types . The industry’s hard-won return to net profitability, which finally was achieved in 2007, proved to be short-lived.
The French defense ministry says U.S. Rover air-ground tactical data links will begin operational trials in Afghanistan in February on Rafale and Mirage 2000D fighters and Harfang medium-altitude long-endurance UAVs, and begin operation in March. France is acquiring 25 Rover units from L-3 Communications and Thales . U.S. officials reportedly have complained that the Harfangs, in particular, are of limited use without a data link.
In Fiscal 2009, congressional auditors received 1,764 protests of federal contract awards, an increase of about 20% from 2008. At first blush, that jump aligns well with the anecdotal observation in recent years that the aerospace and defense industry has become more disputatious in contracting competitions. But the latest Government Accountability Office report suggests a different take.
The Legacy 650 is a new version of the large-cabin business jet based on Brazilian manufacturer Embraer’s ERJ 135 regional jet. Compared with the Legacy 600, the 650 offers more than 500-nm. additional range as a result of adding fuel, uprating the Rolls-Royce AE3007 engines and using the beefed-up wing from the ERJ 145XL to increase maximum takeoff weight. Range with four passengers is increased to 3,900 nm. The aircraft first flew in September 2009, and certification is planned for the second half of this year.
William Alibrandi/Forecast International/www.forecastinternational.com
Turboshaft engine production is in a slight decline, but the trend should reverse course in 2012. The global economic crisis that began in 2008 is being felt more prominently in the civil helicopter segment, as military procurement continues almost without regard to market conditions.
The Air Transport Assn. reports that although trends seem to be improving, 2009 saw the worst drop in U.S. airline revenue the industry has experienced. Passenger revenue for seven major carriers and affiliates fell by 18%, exceeding the previous record decline of 14% in 2001. Yields were down 13% in 2009, and passenger volume dropped 6%. ATA President James May says, “Anecdotal evidence suggests a positive revenue trajectory in 2010,” although higher fuel prices could “hinder recovery efforts.”
John S. Edwards/Forecast International/www.forecastinternational.com
Militaries around the globe recognize that, in the future, the most critical regional battles will be fought in space. The nation that can most effectively leverage military space assets or counter th ose of another nation, while also managing the budgets for these systems, will ultimately be victorious. It is also safe to say victory will require doing all of these things well. As more and more nations become aware of the advantages offered by military space assets, the desire to counter these advantages will be too overwhelming to ignore.
Renamed the Avenger, General Atomics Aeronautical Systems’ jet-powered Predator C made its long-awaited first flight in April 2009. Developed as a private venture, the unmanned aircraft is aimed at the U.S. Air Force’s emerging MQ-X requirement for a Predator/Reaper replacement. The company also intends to offer the Avenger for carrier-based operation, with a folding wing. Powered by a 4,800-lb.-thrust Pratt & Whitney Canada PW545B turbofan, the first prototype has 66-ft.-span wing, gross weight of about 11,500 lb., and is designed to have a 20-hr.
The European Union and the U.S. last week agreed to pursue ways to strengthen international aviation security and are planning a high-level meeting in April to address ongoing efforts. Their security objectives were outlined in a Jan. 21 joint declaration issued shortly after a meeting in Toledo, Spain, of ministers of EU member states, the European Commission president and U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano.
William Alibrandi/Forecast International/www.forecastinternational.com
While the competition to power commercial wide-body transports continues to be a three-way fight, the long-standing duopoly in the narrow-body airliner power sector is under threat as new technology emerges.
Ahead of a recovery in the civil market and anticipating a downturn in defense, U.S. primes continue to adjust their businesses, looking for cost reductions and growth opportunities. Several defense programs were terminated in 2009 and more are under threat this year. Lockheed Martin, the largest U.S. defense contractor, was hit by decisions to end F-22 production and cancel the VH-71A presidential helicopter and TSAT communications satellite. The company is cutting jobs and combining units in its electronic systems business.
Making its public debut in the region, the Aerosonde Mark 4.7 small tactical unmanned aircraft system (Stuas) was set to fly at the Bahrain International Airshow last week at the Sakhir air base in Bahrain. The Mark 4.7 is AAI Corp.’s submission for the joint U.S. Navy and Marine Corps Stuas/Tier II competition. Airshow attendees can check out the Mark 4.7’s automated launch and recovery operations and view a live, full-motion video feed from the aircraft’s payload.
The stars are aligning for a pickup in mergers and acquisitions (M&A) in the aerospace and defense (A&D) sector. After a two-year slump, investment bankers are expecting better times in 2010, though the cumulative value of A&D deals is likely to remain well below the 2007 peak of $33 billion. A slow thawing of the credit markets is freeing up capital for M&A transactions, while sellers have come to accept that lower valuations are a reality, not an aberration.
Douglas Royce/Forecast International/www.forecastinternational.com
During the past decade, world fighter production totaled only around 2,500 units, but over the next 10 years, annual deliveries are set to rise. Unlike the 1970s and 1980s, when large numbers of dedicated ground-attack aircraft were produced in addition to fighters, the modern market for combat aircraft is focused almost exclusively on multirole fighters that can handle both the air superiority and attack missions. The U.S. Air Force recently proposed building a new bomber, but this program is not expected to deliver an aircraft until the 2020s.
Tough environmental targets are driving research into future commercial airliners on both sides of the Atlantic, but if new aircraft configurations are required to meet the aggressive goals, they could take decades to develop and deploy. Airlines, through the International Air Transport Assn., have committed to improve fuel efficiency 1.5% a year through this decade; to achieve carbon-neutral growth from 2020; and to halve carbon emissions by 2050 relative to 2005 levels.
Sikorsky expects to exceed 250 kt. with its X2 Technology coaxial-rotor compound helicopter demonstrator early in the year, resetting speed expectations for rotorcraft that have been stuck at around 150 kt. for decades.
Two remote-sensing spacecraft—one aimed at Earth and the other at the Sun—are set for Florida launches in the weeks ahead. NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) is due to lift off Feb. 9 from Space Launch Complex 41 at Cape Canaveral AFS on a United Launch Alliance (ULA) Atlas V, kicking off a five-year mission. The first mission in NASA’s Living With a Star program, SDO will image the Sun at resolutions 10 times higher than high-definition television—4,096 X 4,096 pixels.
Stepping up its push to become a leading player in global aerospace, South Korea proposes to build a 90-seat turboprop under an industry development plan that also seeks to press ahead with the KF-X fighter and KAH attack helicopter programs.
British aerospace and defense lobby group ADS last week at least gained a concession from the government on research and development funding: The two will meet on a regular basis to discuss the key issue.
Robert V. Dahl, Managing Director, Air Cargo Management Group
The global airfreight industry has lost nearly a decade’s worth of growth in the last year and a half, thanks to a period of unprecedented turmoil that began late in 2008 and continued throughout 2009 .
The field of electronic warfare and electronic attack is producing mixed reactions about its level of support in the Quadrennial Defense Review and 2011 budget planning . “A lot of people were counting on the electronic attack version of the F-35, but now production is being delayed,” says a scientific adviser to the Pentagon. “The Block 50 F-16 [Wild Weasels] are getting long in the tooth. Frankly, I don’t think the Air Force knows what it will do,” he says. “A huge issue that will have to be settled first is how the services will conduct joint management of EW and EA.
A group of French parliamentarians is trying to spark a high-level debate on the feasibility—or desirability—of developing a European territorial ballistic missile defense capability.
