What Is The Dollar Value In The New AWIN 10-Year Commercial Forecast?

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Aviation Week has greatly reduced its 10-year forecast for new commercial aircraft from last year’s forecast. Can you put a dollar value on that?

Aviation Week Fleet and Flight Analyst Daniel Williams responds:

Our annual 10-year Fleet and MRO forecast has just been launched, and as you can imagine, there are some significant changes from last year’s forecast.

Our 2020 forecast envisioned more than 23,000 new aircraft deliveries for 2020-29. Our new 2021 forecast shows a little more than 16,000 new aircraft deliveries for 2021-30—a reduction of just over 30%. The reduction is primarily driven by the global COVID-19 pandemic but also partly by the mothballing of the Boeing 737 MAX production line.

Regional aircraft and single-aisle aircraft deliveries declined about 27% in the latest forecast, whereas the forecast for twin-aisle deliveries was down more than 40% from a year earlier.

In terms of putting a dollar value to that, the 2020 forecast for new aircraft deliveries (using recommended retail price, or RRP) amounted to $3.2 trillion, whereas our 2021 forecast shows new aircraft deliveries totaling $2.1 trillion, representing a 34% drop in dollar value. This is mainly because fewer expensive twin-aisle deliveries are expected over the decade.