SINGAPORE—China’s Transport Ministry is forecasting a 99.5% year-on-year improvement for the imminent Chinese New Year travel season.
Also known as Chun Yun, it will be the first Chinese New Year since Beijing’s relaxation of COVID-19-related policies and the easing of inter-province travel.
Known as the world’s largest human migration period, this year’s Chun Yun is expected to see 2 billion passenger trips in China across all transport modes, which would still be only 70.3% of 2019 levels. It is expected there will be an average of 11,000 daily flights during the 40-day season, spanning Jan. 7 to Feb. 15—equivalent to 73% of pre-pandemic levels. In addition, the Civil Aviation Administration of China has approved 13,230 passenger flights for Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan over the travel season.
The country’s largest airline, China Southern Airlines, will offer more than 100,000 flights, averaging some 2,800 flights per day. Most of these will connect the airline’s key markets in China’s southern regions with vacation destination Hainan a key focus.
Based on current forward bookings, peak travel dates are set to be Jan. 18 and Jan. 20, ahead of the important reunion dinner on Jan. 21.
The top routes are Beijing-Sanya, Shanghai-Beijing, Beijing-Haikou, Shenzhen-Kunming, Shenzhen-Chongqing, Hangzhou-Kunming and Shenzhen-Chengdu.
For 2022, China was the world’s only negative-growth air transport market. Aviation Week Network’s Tracked Aircraft Utilization tool shows total commercial flying hours by Chinese operators in November 2019 stood at 846,260 hr. whereas in November 2022—when Beijing’s strict movement-control measures were still in place—the monthly total was just 307,472 hr.
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The start of Chun Yun coincides with the relaxation of border restriction in China. Starting Jan. 8, Chinese nationals and long-term visa holders are no longer required to undergo quarantine upon returning to China. The rule change sparked a frenzy of outbound bookings by travel-starved Chinese.
Spooked by the surge in cases within China, the EU Commission on Jan. 5 strongly encouraged member states to introduce the requirement of a negative pre-departure COVID-19 test for passengers coming from China. France, Germany, Italy, the UK and the U.S. are among the growing list of countries that have imposed test requirements for passengers arriving on flights from China, much to the disappointment of air transport organizations such as IATA and ACI.
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