Both Boeing and Airbus have released their long term forecasts of passenger and cargo traffic, as well as regional-jet manufacturers, Bombardier and Embraer. Routesonline are taking a look at the long term forecasts to assess the potential outlook for each region over the next 20 years.
Asia has become one of the biggest aviation markets in the world with over a billion passengers travelling to, from or within the region every year. Airlines and airports in the region are continually growing, with several ranked among the largest in the world, according to Boeing.
Regional economic growth, liberalisation and new business models are all but some of the factors linked to the evolution of the Asia-Pacific aviation market. Jet fleets of Asian airlines have nearly doubled, while routes to, from and within Asia have increased 57 percent over the past ten years.
Boeing has forecast a staggering 14,330 new airplanes to be delivered to the region before 2034, 72 percent of which are expected to be single-aisle aircraft. The plane manufacturer has predicted that the number of airplanes within the region will grow from 5,850 in 2014 to 16,180 in 2034.
Airbus has predicted that the Asia-Pacific region will lead in world traffic by 2034, dominating 36 percent of the world’s revenue passenger kilometres (RPK) by 2034, up from 29 percent in 2014, and averaging a 20-year growth of 5.7 percent.
According to Airbus, 50 percent of the top twenty traffic flows will involve the Asia-Pacific region, with the majority coming from the Domestic Asia Emerging market.
Low-cost carriers have proved particularly successful in the Asia-Pacific region. Over the past ten-years, the region’s LCCs have generated an average growth rate of 24.5 percent according to Boeing, and by comparison, Europe’s LCCs grew 13.4 percent annually during the same period, while North America’s grew 2.2 percent annually.
The region’s GDP is expected to grow by 4.3 percent annually over the next 20 years, spurring on the 6.1 percent annual growth in the travel market. Air cargo also plays a crucial role in Asia, according to Boeing, with the Asia-Pacific cargo market expected to grow by 5.7 percent per year. Carriers in the region are expected to need 380 new production freighters and 570 converted freighters in the next 20 years.
In terms of the regional and business market, Embraer has predicted a total of 550 70 to 130-seat jets will be required in the region over the next 20 years – or 9 percent worldwide.
In the 70+ turboprop sector, Embraer has forecasted a total of 650 aircraft for the region – the greatest amount of any region, and a 32 percent worldwide share. The Asia-Pacific region is also expected to require the greatest number of 130 to 210-seat jets, with a prediction of 5,110 aircraft overall, and a 24 percent share of the requirement worldwide.
Bombardier on the other hand has predicted a total of 355 business aircraft will be delivered within the Asia-Pacific region – only 3.9 percent of the global share.
Large category aircraft accounts for close to 60 percent of deliveries within Asia-Pacific, worth $11 billion. Medium category aircraft accounts for 20 percent of deliveries, while light category aircraft accounts for 22 percent within the Asia-Pacific region.
Asia's network carriers include some of the largest, oldest, and most well-regarded airlines in the world, such as Korean Air, Air China, and JAL. Network carriers tend to have major hub operations for domestic, regional, and international services and large, complex fleets; airline alliances; and a broad array of service offerings, say Boeing.
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