Both Boeing and Airbus have released their long term forecasts of passenger and cargo traffic, as well as regional-jet manufacturers, Bombardier and Embraer. Routesonline are taking a look at the long term forecasts to assess the potential outlook for each region over the next 20 years.
Russia’s economy continues to be the largest in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) region, accounting for nearly 74 percent of GDP in 2014, according to Boeing. The region has grown airline capacity by more than 9 percent annually over the past ten years, and Russia’s Federal Air Transport Agency has reported that the number of passengers that Russia’s five largest airlines carry rose to over 93 million in 2014.
Over the next 20 years, Boeing has forecast a total of 1,150 new airplanes, 66 percent of which are expected to be single aisle aircraft. Small widebody aircraft are expected to make up 10 percent of deliveries, while medium and large widebody aircraft are anticipated to account for 3 percent of deliveries each. The remaining 17 percent of deliveries therefore are expected to be regional jets within the CIS region over the next 20 years.
Airbus has predicted a 20-year growth within the region of 4.9 percent, higher than both North America and Europe. CIS controlled 4 percent of worldwide Revenue Passenger Kilometres (RPK) in 2014, and is expected to maintain this number through to 2034, according to the aircraft manufacturer.
As the economic situation improves in the region, Boeing expects a return to increased international travel and a requirement for more widebody aircraft. Although the region’s fleet continues to grow, 53 percent of new airplanes will replace older airplanes. New planes such as the 737 MAX and the 787 Dreamliner will improve fleet efficiency.
In terms of business and regional aircraft, Bombardier has predicted a total of 510 aircraft will be required within the region over the next ten years, valued at $16 billion. Medium and large category aircraft are expected to account for over 80 percent of deliveries, valued at a combined $15 billion, with the remaining $1 billion expected to be generated from light category aircraft.
Embraer on the other hand has predicted a total of 380 aircraft in the 70 to 130-seat aircraft segment – 6 percent of deliveries overall worldwide. Turboprops are expected to generate 4 percent of worldwide deliveries to the CIS region – 80 aircraft in total, while aircraft in the 130 to 210-seat sector are expected to generate 980 deliveries over the next 20 years.
Intra-regional aviation, the fastest growing mode of transport, is key to improving links between CIS cities, according to Embraer. Air transport liberalisation will be one of the main engines of growth over the next 20 years, and is projected to grow demand by 4.8 percent.
Despite current challenges, the commercial aviation outlook for the CIS is one of sustained growth in the long term, according to Boeing. The region’s size and diverse terrain makes airline travel an attractive transportation option that is expected to increase as personal incomes rise.
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