Both Boeing and Airbus have released their long term forecasts of passenger and cargo traffic, as well as regional-jet manufacturers, Bombardier and Embraer. Routesonline are taking a look at the long term forecasts to assess the potential outlook for each region over the next 20 years.
Europe’s aviation market has remained strong despite the recent economic downturn. According to Boeing, the European market is expected to acquire more than 7,300 new planes valued at over $1 trillion.
Single-aisle airplanes will comprise the majority of deliveries, representing a 79 percent share, while 12 percent will be made up of small widebody aircraft. Medium widebody aircraft will represent 7 percent of all deliveries, while regional jets and large widebody aircraft will make up 1 percent of the total share each.
Europe saw the greatest number of new long-haul routes in 2015 according to OAG, with just fewer than 70 new routes commencing this year so far. The Middle East follows in second place, but with a little over 45 new long-haul routes, showing that Europe is well ahead in terms of long-haul routes so far.
According to Airbus, Europeans took a total of 1.21 trips per capita in 2014, which is expected to increase to 2.24 trips per capita by 2034, which will put Europe ahead of North America to become the nation taking the greatest number of trips per year.
However, Airbus has also predicted that the percentage share of revenue passenger kilometres (RPK) that Europe will have worldwide will decline by 2034 from 25 percent to 21 percent, due to the emerging aviation sector in the Middle East. Europe will still see growth however, and is expected to register a 3.6 percent growth over 20 years according to the aircraft manufacturer.
Low-cost carriers continue to grow short-haul markets, providing 42 percent of intra-Europe capacity in 2014. Network airlines are shifting away from short-haul point-to-point traffic which is targeted by LCC’s to flowing passengers through their hubs on longer itineraries, according to Boeing.
Europe's network carriers have shifted long-haul capacity to more profitable markets—notably the North Atlantic, where their capacity has grown over 16 percent since 2009.
In terms of regional and business aircraft, Bombardier has predicted that of its 9,000 estimated deliveries, Europe will require a total of 1,525 aircraft over the next ten years. It will remain the second largest market for business jets, with deliveries valued at a total of $50 billion. Medium and large category aircraft account for almost 70 percent of deliveries.
Embraer has predicted a total of 1,160 70 to 130-jets will be delivered over the next 20 years to Europe, an 18 percent share overall. In terms of new turboprop aircraft, Europe is expected to receive 490 new turboprops – 24 percent of global deliveries, and only second from the top behind the Asia Pacific region.
In the 130 to 210-seat jet segment, Embraer has forecasted a total of 4,670 aircraft to be delivered – 22 percent of global deliveries, and only second again to Asia Pacific who are expected to receive 24 percent of deliveries overall.
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