Both Boeing and Airbus have released their long term forecasts of passenger and cargo traffic, as well as regional-jet manufacturers, Bombardier and Embraer. Routesonline are taking a look at the long term forecasts to assess the potential outlook for each region over the next 20 years.
In Latin America, aviation is a key component of growth as it facilitates trade, travel and tourism while promoting globalisation and technology development. Economic growth in Central America is expected to average 5.6 percent over the next five years, led by Panama, according to Boeing.
Five-year growth rates for the region’s two largest economies – Brazil and Mexico are expected to reach 3.8 percent and 2.3 percent respectively.
Boeing has forecast a total of 3,020 new airplanes to be delivered to the region over the next twenty years, a huge 84 percent of which are expected to be single aisle aircraft. Small widebody aircraft are expected to make up a further ten percent, while regional jet deliveries are expected to hit 5 percent over the same period. Medium widebody aircraft are therefore expected to make up 1 percent of deliveries between 2015 and 2034, while large widebody aircraft are not expected to feature in deliveries at all.
Airbus has predicted a 20-year growth of 5.2 percent for the Latin American region. Its Revenue Passenger Kilometres (RPK) stood at 5 percent in 2014, and is expected to increase by 1 percent to 6, by 2034.
The region’s commercial fleet is projected to more than double between now and 2034 – from nearly 1,500 airplanes today to more than 3,600, according to Boeing. The majority of the single aisle aircraft deliveries reflect the continued growth of low-cost carriers and further expansion of networks within Latin America and the Caribbean.
In terms of business and regional aircraft, Embraer has predicted that Latin America will require a total of 720 aircraft in the 70 to 130-seat sector – an 11 percent share worldwide. The region is expected to receive 270 aircraft in the turboprop segment and 1,720 aircraft in the 130 to 210- seat segment over the next 20 years.
Along with the emergence of the middle class, new investments in aviation infrastructure and regional integration will shape the way air transport will grow in the coming years, according to Embraer. Among other investments, the Brazilian government has announced a plan to expand regional aviation with the goal of having 95 percent of the population accessing regular air services within 100km.
Bombardier on the other hand has predicted a total of 850 aircraft deliveries within the Latin American region over the next ten years, valued at $24 billion. According to the aircraft manufacturer, Brazil and Mexico account for 60 percent of the regional fleet, in a relatively mature market for business aviation.
Light and medium aircraft delivery is expected to account for 75 percent of deliveries to the region, valued at $20 billion combined, while light aircraft deliveries make up the remaining 40 percent.
Passenger traffic growth for Latin America and the Caribbean is forecast to average 6 percent per year over the next 20 years with the fastest growth expected within intraregional flows, according to Boeing. Traffic within Latin America is forecast to average 6.6 percent per year through to 2034.
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